France could experience "open conflict in Europe's core" by 2030, with Russia representing the "most significant danger" to its national security, according to the French National Strategic Review released on July 14.
The report outlines France's military priorities for the future, highlighting a "continuous Russian threat" along Europe's periphery. It states that Russia currently "presents the most immediate risk to France's interests, its allies, and the overall stability of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic region in the years ahead."
Among the threats cited are Russia's alleged involvement in cyberattacks, targeting exiled opposition figures, election meddling, and manipulating public sentiment to "create instability."
Additionally, the review warns of potential "high-intensity, large-scale warfare" erupting in Europe, urging France and the EU to strengthen their defensive capabilities in preparation.
This comes after a rare phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and French leader Emmanuel Macron in early July—their first direct conversation since September 2022. The two-hour discussion covered developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.