Conflicting signals from the Finance Ministry on budget policy, against the backdrop of the Gulf war and an almost twofold rise in oil prices, triggered sharp swings in the ruble in March. Within days, the interbank rate moved 7–10% in both directions, from 77 to nearly 87 rubles per dollar, before returning to 81.
The ruble now depends mainly on the behavior of the biggest players in the currency market: the Finance Ministry, exporters, importers and the Central Bank. Since mid-2025, the Central Bank has been cutting rates, while the fall in Russian oil prices in autumn 2025 and winter 2026 reduced budget revenues. Against that background, the Finance Ministry floated lowering the oil cutoff price above which extra revenues are sent to the National Wealth Fund. The market read this as a sign that the ministry might buy foreign currency to refill the fund, putting pressure on the ruble.
Concern deepened after officials also signaled that the $59 per barrel oil price written into the budget no longer matched reality, and discussed cutting “non-sensitive” budget spending by 10%. The ruble weakened sharply after those remarks.
However, on March 24 it became clear that the authorities would neither revise the budget rule in 2026 nor cut spending. According to Tatyana Mitrova of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, if Urals averages $85–90 per barrel, March alone could bring the budget about $4.5 billion in extra revenue. That is roughly one tenth of the projected 3.8 trillion ruble budget deficit for 2026.
The Finance Ministry then said the cutoff price would remain at $59 until 2027, and that foreign-exchange operations would be suspended until July 1. The ruble strengthened after that. Economist Dmitry Polevoy remarked sarcastically that budget policy was unlikely to be intended to create such exchange-rate volatility.
In the coming months, analysts say the ruble may be supported by more expensive oil and higher foreign-currency revenues from exporters, which reach Russia with a time lag. Denis Popov of Promsvyazbank sees a mid-year range of 80–85 rubles per dollar. But longer-term risks remain: a possible drop in Urals prices if the conflict ends, further rate cuts by the Central Bank, and threats to oil infrastructure. Because of that, some experts expect the exchange rate to move into the 85–90 rubles per dollar range by year-end.