Several Russian oil refineries with a combined capacity of about 40 million tons of oil per year have resumed selling fuel on the St. Petersburg Exchange. That was reported by Kommersant, citing a report by Platts, an analytics agency within S&P Global.
At the same time, some major plants accounting for more than 45 million tons of annual refining have not yet returned to trading. Sources are not naming the specific refineries that have restarted operations so as not to reveal potential targets for Ukrainian strikes.
Market assessments
Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner at trading company Proleum, said at an open company briefing that the situation on Russia’s fuel market has improved somewhat. In his view, the market has likely passed its most difficult phase. He said several refineries had restored operations and resumed releasing petroleum products, primarily diesel fuel.
According to Dyachenko, it feels as though the market has “pushed off from the bottom,” although the gasoline situation remains difficult.
Proleum trader Nina Timirshayokhova said the additional volumes were mainly due to some plants completing forced repairs and to higher supplies of Belarusian fuel. At the same time, she noted, some other plants have gone into unscheduled repairs.
Denis Morokhin, economics columnist for Novaya-Europe, said the return of refineries to operation remains unstable and “fluctuational,” because new strikes could happen at any moment. He recalled that as recently as last week some plants were increasing output while others were still idle.
Shortages and the impact of strikes
A Kommersant source said lines at Russian gas stations have shortened and many operators have resumed selling fuel without restrictions. According to Novaya-Europe, that is also reflected in regional media and Telegram channels, including in Barnaul, Bryansk, Penza, and Tula. However, fuel prices continue to rise in the Samara and Irkutsk regions.
By Novaya-Europe’s calculations, Ukrainian strikes have fully shut down or seriously damaged facilities processing 159 million tons of oil per year, equal to 59% of those plants’ annual refining in 2024–2025. That could mean the loss of capacity to produce 27.4 million tons of gasoline annually, or 65%, as well as 52 million tons of diesel fuel, or 61%. Russia’s total effective refinery capacity in 2024–2025 was estimated at about 270 million tons per year.