Novaya-Europe has compiled the most discussed technology scenarios for 2026, assigning a probability to each. Among the trends the publication considers most notable are a possible return of metaverses, stronger Chinese positions in tech, the growing impact of artificial intelligence on the market, and the gradual rollout of post-quantum cryptography.
The authors say interest in metaverses could revive. They argue this is being driven by generative AI tools that can build three-dimensional spaces from text prompts, as well as by existing gaming platforms such as Fortnite and Roblox. According to official figures cited in the article, Fortnite has 650 million registered users, while Roblox has 380 million active players.
The article rates as highly likely a further backlash against Microsoft’s strategy of embedding AI across its products. The company has integrated Copilot into Windows 11, Xbox, Office, search and Paint, and in December 2025 invested more than $17 billion in server infrastructure in India. Against that backdrop, some users are considering switching to macOS, Linux and SteamOS. By late 2025, Linux had reached a 3.2% share on the Steam platform.
The authors also highlight the risk of financial overheating around AI. According to estimates cited in the piece, OpenAI will not be profitable until at least 2030 and needs an additional $207 billion in investment to hit its targets. The article says ChatGPT and Sora have about 35 million paying users, roughly 5% of the total user base. If investor enthusiasm cools sharply, experts warn, the shock could hit the wider US technology market.
Among hardware developments, the article mentions a possible foldable iPhone. Chinese outlet UDN, described as close to manufacturers at the Foxconn plant, reported that Apple has managed to create a display without visible creases. The expected price is between $2,000 and $2,500. At the same time, the market is facing shortages of RAM and SSDs as producers including Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix shift priority to AI-sector supply, pushing prices sharply higher.
The authors also see broader use of post-quantum cryptography as plausible: the authorities of the European Union and Australia have already spoken about adopting it, and Amazon CTO Werner Vogels expects wider uptake in 2026. By contrast, a rapid launch of Wi-Fi 8 and 6G is described as unlikely, even though development is continuing. Other trends named in the article include rising interest in domain-specific AI models, a possible increase in Chinese technology exports, and continued attention to household humanoid robots, which are still unlikely to become a mass-market product soon.