U.S. President Donald Trump has given Iran three to five days to return to the negotiating table and present clear counterproposals. Otherwise, American forces will again strike the Islamic Republic, Axios sources reported.
"Trump is prepared to give another three to five days of a ceasefire so that the Iranians can collect their thoughts. This [ceasefire] will not last forever," one of the journalists' sources said.
What the U.S. is counting on. The American side believes that Iran and the U.S. are capable of reaching an agreement that will stop the war and resolve the issue of the remnants of the nuclear program. However, Axios writes, Washington fears that Iran's military and civilian leadership will not be able to reach agreement among themselves.
Why Iran is in no hurry to agree to a second round of talks. A trip to Islamabad now looks unacceptable for Iran because Iranian politicians do not believe that Trump truly intends to conclude a deal acceptable to both sides, Ruslan Suleymanov, an orientalist and expert at NEST Centre, told Novaya Gazeta Europe.
What Iran is demanding. For this reason, he noted, Tehran insists on the fulfillment of its conditions: the complete lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, payment of compensation for damage caused during the war, and also that the nuclear program not be part of the negotiation process.
What the U.S. is demanding. "Washington, for its part, as we can see, is also putting forward rather maximalist demands, effectively pushing Tehran toward capitulation," Suleymanov emphasized.
The U.S. is demanding that Tehran completely dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, introduce restrictions on the number and range of nuclear missiles, abandon proxy forces, and ensure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. These provisions appeared in the official plan of the Trump administration, which was reported on by The New York Times and Israel's Channel 12.
Whether to expect a resumption of the war. According to the orientalist, the current situation could at any moment lead to a new round of war. At the same time, as he noted, both sides have already realized that the war will not bring the desired result and will not end in victory for either of them.
Therefore, Suleymanov believes, consultations between the sides will continue. However, both the U.S. and Iran will take part in them without trusting each other, which means the chances of a compromise will remain low.
At the same time, the expert added, forceful actions such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or new strikes can be expected.
"If the Americans strike Iranian territory, Tehran will not leave it unanswered, and then the conflict could enter a sluggish phase and become a backdrop that we will all have to get used to," Suleymanov concluded.
The first round of talks. The first meeting of U.S. and Iranian representatives took place on April 11 in Islamabad. It was attended by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. On several issues, the sides were still unable to reach a consensus.