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In the first quarter of 2026, the Russian authorities transferred federal bonuses to 71.2 thousand citizens who signed a contract for the first time, and this is the lowest figure in three years when compared with the same periods. According to economist Janis Kluge's calculations, in January-March the recruitment pace fell to about 800 people per day.
🔵 Where does the data come from? Kluge assessed the situation based on information from the Russian Finance Ministry about federal budget spending. In January-March, 28.5 billion rubles were allocated for one-time payments upon signing a contract. Since the federal payment amounts to 400 thousand rubles, this corresponds to 71,216 new contracts.
This figure is lower than in the same period of 2025, when 89.6 thousand people received payments, and lower than in the first quarter of 2024, when 73.4 thousand such contracts were signed. The federal statistics match estimates based on regional budget data.
In the second quarter, according to regional data, recruitment stabilized again at about 1,000 contracts per day, or about 30 thousand monthly. Kluge emphasizes that a discrepancy remains between official statements and budget statistics. For example, at the end of April Dmitry Medvedev claimed there had been 127 thousand new contract soldiers since the start of the year.
🔵 What does this mean? The decline in recruitment pace by itself does not prove that the Russian army lacks people. However, as Kluge believes, the version about recruitment difficulties looks more likely: the average size of regional contract payments continues to increase and has already reached record levels, and many reports are coming from the regions about pressure to fulfill recruitment targets.
🔵 What is happening with students? The press secretary of the project «Идите лесом» Ivan Chuvilyaev, in a conversation with «Новой-Европа», said that human rights activists have not seen any easing of pressure on students. According to him, there are still many recruitment attempts, especially targeting those who are being pushed to sign a contract through administrative structures. Human rights activists currently know of one student who has been killed. In addition, there is data on about a thousand students from Siberia, the Urals, and the Volga region who may have joined the «беспилотные войска». At the same time, there is currently no more detailed information about students who signed a contract and ended up at the front.
🔵 Impact on the war . As «Новой-Европа» military observer Ilya Volzhsky explained, fluctuations in the recruitment of Russian contract soldiers for the front have happened before. The largest number of people willing to serve in the army came after Trump's inauguration as president: at that time, Russians decided that the war would soon end and rushed to receive payments for signing a contract. «На фронте эти колебания пока не сыграли решающей роли. Армия РФ до сих пор пытается наступать, но безуспешно», the expert said.
«Применение украинцами тактики создания килл-зон показало свою эффективность. Большинство российских штурмовиков погибают при попытке инфильтрации. Специалисты считают, что без новых способов наступления российские войска будут вязнуть в украинской обороне даже в случае поступления новых обширных пополнений», — Volzhsky said.