In mid-April 2026, Russian authorities began speaking much more openly about the worsening economic situation, even though Vladimir Putin had previously repeatedly stressed the economy’s stability. At the same time, officials have largely avoided directly linking these difficulties to the ongoing war against Ukraine.
On April 15, at a meeting on economic issues, Putin acknowledged negative trends and ordered measures to stimulate growth. He said that in January-February GDP fell by 1.8%. He referred to seasonal and calendar-related factors, but emphasized that they did not fully explain the decline in business and investment activity. He also said industrial output and construction had moved into negative territory.
Budget pressure is also increasing. According to preliminary Finance Ministry data, the federal budget deficit in the first quarter reached 4.576 trillion rubles, or 1.9% of GDP, above the original plan. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the situation should even out over the year and described the deficit as predictable.
On April 17, Economic Development Minister Maksim Reshetnikov called the situation difficult, especially for business. He pointed to growing pressure from tax changes, labor shortages, a strong ruble, and high interest rates. In his assessment, the internal reserves that had supported growth in earlier years are now almost exhausted.
Similar concerns were voiced by the Central Bank. Elvira Nabiullina said the economy had for the first time run into limits on available labor, while 2% unemployment and the earlier inflation surge were signs of overheating. Former deputy central bank chairman Sergei Shvetsov separately mentioned substantial budget spending on the aims of the “special military operation,” which, he said, does not create an immediate supply of goods and services.
Additional assessments also point to a slowdown. According to Reuters, Sberbank senior executive Mikhail Matovnikov warned that the economy is moving from deceleration into contraction and that credit risks will grow. The pro-government TsMAKP center expects GDP growth of only 0.9-1.3% this year, while the IMF forecast is about 1.1%.