NATO’s large-scale Cold Response 2026 exercises, held from March 9 to March 19 in Norway, Finland, the North Atlantic and the airspace of the northern region, underscored that the Arctic has become one of the alliance’s key military planning priorities. More than 25,000 troops from 14 countries took part, including about 4,000 Americans.
Alongside troop maneuvers, Norway staged major civilian drills. Under the scenario, dozens of seriously wounded people arrived in Narvik and Tromso from a notional front line, while Fjelldal faced a separate chemical tanker crash. These episodes formed part of a ten-day computer simulation designed to test how local, regional and national evacuation and healthcare systems would perform under extreme strain. Norwegian authorities stress that in a conflict, the resilience of the home front would be no less important than weapons, which is why 2026 has been declared the country’s “Year of Total Defense.”
The exercises rehearsed cross-border troop movements in winter conditions, the transfer of a Swedish divisional headquarters into Finland, and the release of more than 14,000 pieces of equipment and materiel from mountain storage sites in Norway. Particular attention was paid to concealment and maneuver by artillery units in light of lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine, where reconnaissance and strike drones have played a major role. At the same time, the Arctic also saw the launch of ICE CAMP 2026, involving the US nuclear submarines USS Delaware and USS Santa Fe.
NATO’s current focus reflects the fact that the Arctic is no longer viewed as an insulated zone of cooperation. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Arctic Council’s work was effectively halted, while Finland and Sweden joined NATO in April 2023 and March 2024. As a result, seven of the eight Arctic states are now inside the alliance, and Russia’s land border with NATO has expanded by more than 1,300 kilometers.
“Threats are evolving from climate change to economic threats and then to strategic and military threats, as Russian infrastructure moves farther and farther north toward the Arctic Circle,” Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said on March 11.
Western analysts argue that Moscow blends civilian and military instruments: it is modernizing Arctic sites, arming patrol icebreakers, and treating Northern Sea Route infrastructure as dual-use. According to the article, Russia has reactivated and upgraded more than 50 Soviet-era facilities in the Arctic in recent years, including airfields, radar stations and border posts, while the Kola Peninsula hosts about two-thirds of its naval nuclear deterrent forces.
NATO, for its part, is trying to map out possible escalation scenarios. As Defense News reported on March 9, the alliance is creating a research group led by the United States and Norway that is to produce by 2029 a report titled Winter Storm 2030 on scenarios for the High North. In February, the RAND Corporation outlined 11 possible Arctic incidents and concluded that sudden departures from the norm, such as an accidental airspace violation or a collision at sea, are especially dangerous. With no reliable standing deconfliction mechanisms in place, even a local incident in the region could trigger rapid escalation.