According to US polls and media assessments, the ongoing American military operation against Iran has not given Donald Trump the usual wartime boost in popularity. Instead, the campaign has worsened the Republicans’ position ahead of the November 3, 2026 congressional elections, deepened divisions inside the party, and alarmed parts of the electorate that helped return Trump to the White House.
The article says the current operation has failed to produce the classic “rally around the flag” effect seen in earlier US wars. After Pearl Harbor, Franklin Roosevelt’s approval rating rose from 72% to 84%, while during the 1991 Gulf War George H. W. Bush’s support jumped from 58% to 89%. By contrast, Trump’s Iran operation, The New York Times wrote, became at its outset the most unpopular US war in modern American history. According to CNN, only 41% of Americans supported the move; other polls put approval anywhere between 27% and 50%.
Based on aggregated polling, Trump’s net approval rating remains negative at –13.9. One of the main reasons, the author argues, is the lack of a clear explanation of the campaign’s goals. The White House, the piece says, cited Iran’s nuclear program, regime change, prevention of a possible attack, and retaliation for interference in the 2020 and 2024 elections. At the same time, 62% of voters believe the administration has failed to provide a clear justification for the war, while 55%, according to Quinnipiac University, say Iran did not pose an immediate military threat to the United States before the strikes.
Security and economic concerns are also central. Fox News polling found that 51% of registered voters think Trump’s Iran policy has made the United States less safe, and 77% consider it likely that the operation will trigger terrorist attacks on US soil. At the same time, 74% of voters fear a spike in oil and gasoline prices. Morgan Stanley analysts warn that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could fuel inflation and slow domestic consumption.
The political damage, the article stresses, is especially visible among younger voters and nonwhite voters without college degrees. Among people aged 18 to 34, only 21% support the war, while 71% oppose it. Among nonwhite voters without higher education, the split is nearly identical. Support for Trump among Hispanic voters, according to the figures cited, fell from 40% to 28% in one week. At least 13 Americans have already been killed, and Pentagon spending on the campaign is estimated at $1–2 billion per day.
Democrats hope to capitalize on this mood ahead of the elections. According to the Race to the White House model, the probability of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives has risen to 69.3%, leaving Republicans at 30.7%. Republicans still hold the edge in the Senate, but their standing there has also weakened compared with January 2025. The article also says divisions are widening inside the Republican camp between hawks and opponents of another prolonged foreign intervention, including part of the MAGA movement.
“MAGA likes what I do. MAGA likes everything I do. MAGA is me,” Trump said, according to the article, in response to criticism from some of his former allies.
Even so, the author argues that it is becoming harder for the president to balance the rival factions: he signals to hawks that the operation may continue, while promising others it will end soon. When Trump told supporters in Kentucky last week that the US had “already won” in Iran, the article says the crowd responded with silence.