On February 28, 2026, Israel announced the start of its operation against Iran, dubbed “Roaring Lion,” and soon afterward US President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington had joined the strikes. According to the Israeli military, the attacks hit hundreds of targets in western Iran, including missile launchers and air defense sites, while the first blows struck Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah.
One of the main targets was the residence of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. By March 1, Iranian authorities had officially confirmed his death. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi was named acting supreme leader. According to Israeli military statements and Iranian confirmations, several other key regime figures were also killed, including IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, and Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani.
In response, Iran launched large-scale strikes on Israel and on US-linked sites across the region, including in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. US Central Command said its forces had repelled hundreds of missile and drone attacks and that damage to its bases was minimal. The Pentagon said four US service members were killed.
The consequences quickly spread beyond the battlefield. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz came under threat, and some tankers altered their routes. Bloomberg reported a sharp rise in oil prices, while Goldman Sachs warned that even a one-month disruption in traffic through the strait could sharply increase gas prices in Europe and Asia. More than 1,000 flights were also canceled, and according to Russian tour industry figures, about 20,000 Russian travelers were stranded in the UAE.
According to the Iranian Red Crescent, at least 555 people were killed in Iran. There is no independent confirmation of that toll. One of the most controversial incidents was a reported strike on a girls’ school in Hormozgan province, where Iranian authorities said up to 165 people died; Western media confirmed the authenticity of footage from the scene, but not the casualty count.
Experts interviewed by Novaya Gazeta Europe said a US ground operation against Iran does not appear to be planned for now. Senator Tom Cotton said Washington would limit its campaign to air and naval action. At the same time, the future of Iran’s leadership remains uncertain: after Khamenei’s death, there is no obvious force inside the country capable of quickly and coherently taking control.