On February 28, 2026, Israel announced what it called “preemptive strikes” on Iran, and the Pentagon confirmed that the operation was being carried out jointly with the United States. Iran responded by attacking Israeli territory and US bases in the Persian Gulf states. Reports said there were casualties: a 40-year-old woman was killed in Tel Aviv, and a strike hit Dubai’s international airport.
According to Iranian authorities, 201 people were killed and 747 were injured. Those reported killed in Iran included Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, IRGC intelligence chief Gholamreza Rezayan, and Ali Khamenei’s national security adviser Ali Shamkhani. The editors later added that the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after a strike on his residence had been confirmed.
In an interview with Novaya Gazeta Europe, Iran expert and Oriental Express Telegram channel author Mikhail Borodkin said the immediate trigger for the attack was Tehran’s refusal to accept US demands in negotiations. He said these included a full and indefinite halt to uranium enrichment, the transfer of enriched material, limits on the range of ballistic missiles, and an end to support for terrorism. In the view of the Iranian leadership, this amounted to capitulation and still would not guarantee that the US would refrain from attacking later.
“If the Iranian regime accepts these demands, it believes it will be left in a weaker, more vulnerable position. And after that, they think, they will be attacked anyway,” Borodkin said.
The expert said Iran’s leaders likely understood the risk of war but assumed they could survive an air campaign without a ground operation. In his view, if the strikes seriously weaken the system of power in a short period, large anti-government protests may follow, though the outcome of such processes is impossible to predict.
Borodkin also argued that the operation resulted from a decision by Washington with Israeli backing. According to him, regime change in Iran is in Israel’s interest because the current authorities are seen in Tel Aviv as a direct threat to the state’s existence. At the same time, he stressed that in the first hours of the conflict it was too early to draw firm conclusions about the war’s long-term consequences.