Across the European Union, the temporary protection mechanism for Ukrainian citizens is currently in force until March 4, 2027. In summer 2025, the EU extended it again, but European institutions have increasingly begun discussing a gradual exit from the scheme and a transition to other legal grounds for residence.
Possible alternatives include work- and study-based residence permits, family reunification, and voluntary return to Ukraine. Some states are already preparing interim solutions. In Poland, where 993,000 Ukrainians have used temporary protection, authorities are proposing a special CUKR status valid for three years. In Latvia, since 2025, Ukrainians who previously received temporary protection have been getting residence permits extended for three years at once.
Germany has taken in the largest number of Ukrainian refugees: nearly 1.3 million people with that status now live there. Expert Jan Schneider says Ukrainians should not wait until 2027, but should already be checking whether they can switch to permanent residence through work, education, or self-employment.
People interviewed by Novaya Gazeta Baltia say the key issue for many is not whether they want to return, but whether there is anywhere to return to. Yevhen, a journalist who fled occupied Starobilsk through Russia and later settled in Riga, left media work for a bar job after projects funded through USAID lost financing. He says his family will try to legalize their stay through employment and, if that fails, seek asylum.
Yulia, who left Kherson with her family for Lithuania, says returning home is impossible because of constant shelling and her child’s disability, which requires stable electricity. If temporary protection is cancelled, the family will try to remain on the basis of her husband’s employment.
According to UNHCR, in January 2026 there were 5.9 million registered Ukrainian refugees abroad, including 5.3 million in Europe. Lithuania’s Migration Department said the country has more than 80,000 registered Ukrainian citizens, including 52,500 war refugees; any decision on extending the mechanism beyond March 2027 will depend on politicians.