On February 8, Portugal is holding the second round of its presidential election, widely seen as a test of the resilience of the country’s liberal democracy. The contenders are socialist Antonio Jose Seguro and Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega! party, who advocates stronger presidential power, a traditionalist agenda, and a much harsher migration policy.
The final stage of the campaign coincided with the aftermath of Hurricane Kristin, which hit the country in late January. At least six people were killed, hundreds of thousands lost electricity, and preliminary infrastructure damage was estimated at more than 4 billion euros. As Jornal de Noticias wrote, Seguro went to the disaster area on the first evening without staff or journalists, while Ventura turned the catastrophe into a stage for public gestures and media spectacle.
Although Portugal’s president is largely a ceremonial figure, the office carries important powers: under Article 135 of the Constitution, the president may dissolve parliament, appoint the prime minister after consultations, and veto laws. Ventura’s opponents fear that if elected he could use those powers for the benefit of his own party, whose electoral support rose from 1.3% in 2019 to 22.8% in 2025.
The politician has repeatedly invoked nationalist and authoritarian imagery, saying the country needed “three Salazars” to deal with corruption and impunity. On migration, he proposes ending automatic residency for citizens of Portuguese-speaking countries, tightening border controls, deporting economically inactive migrants, and imposing strict labor quotas.
At the same time, migration remains an important economic resource for Portugal. The country is home to more than 1.5 million migrants, about 15% of the population. In 2025, they contributed more than 4 billion euros to the social security system, five times the amount they received in benefits. During the campaign, Seguro stressed that the economy needs labor and that migration is not a threat but a practical necessity.
The defining feature of the campaign was an unprecedented consolidation of moderate forces behind the socialist candidate. He received public backing from center-right figures including former president Anibal Cavaco Silva, Paulo Portas, Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas, and Luis Marques Mendes. Mendes said his choice was guided by the defense of democracy, moderation, and representation of all Portuguese citizens.
Political scientist Hugo Ferrinho Lopes said that under these conditions Ventura was effectively “competing with himself,” while Seguro became the only real point of attraction for nearly the entire remaining political spectrum. According to a poll by ICS-ULisboa and Iscte for Expresso and SIC, Seguro was on track for 51% against 27% for Ventura; after redistributing undecided voters, the figures became 66% versus no more than 34%. One day before the vote, the Estimador portal put Ventura’s chances of winning at just 0.01%.