On February 2, the Ukrainian president’s website published a decree approving the structure of a new national defense plan to replace the document adopted in 2020. The structure itself is classified. The government, with the participation of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Foreign Intelligence Service, and the National Bank, was instructed to prepare the plan and submit it to the National Security and Defense Council.
In comments to Novaya-Europe, Ukrainian political analyst and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion Oleh Saakyan said the previous plan had become outdated not only morally. In his view, the full-scale war has changed the nature of combat, technologies, the political security environment, and the balance of forces and resources, meaning the old strategic document no longer matches reality.
Saakyan said that during intense fighting, attention naturally centers on the front line and day-to-day command decisions. But long-term army supply contracts and changes in the management model, including the introduction of a corps system, require a strategic vision extending beyond confrontation with Russia “here and now.”
Asked how the new defense plan relates to the Victory Plan publicly presented in autumn 2024, the analyst described them as documents of different kinds. According to him, the Victory Plan is a political declaration by the authorities, while the defense plan is a formal state document built according to strict rules and carrying binding force.
“In a defense plan, we cannot afford illusions. Instead, we need maximum pragmatism and even pessimism,” Saakyan said.
He also linked the appearance of the new document to what he called a “complete clarity” in Kyiv over the past year about the outside world’s capabilities. The West, he said, has helped Ukraine more than many expected by its own standards, but still not enough compared with the scale of current challenges. For that reason, he argued, strategy should be based not on the desired scenario but on the resources actually available.
At the same time, Saakyan does not believe Ukraine will abandon its course toward NATO membership. He called that course the country’s political and civilizational choice, while adding that it would be a mistake to frame rapid accession to the alliance as a near-term premise of the defense plan. If Ukraine does join NATO, he said, the document will have to be rewritten.