Ukrainian political analyst and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies Volodymyr Fesenko said the brief halt in Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure at the end of January was not a genuine truce. In his view, it was only a temporary pause, while in legal terms there were no formal obligations in place between the sides.
The next round of trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States in Abu Dhabi is due to begin on February 4-5, 2026, although the meeting had initially been expected on February 1. Fesenko said the postponement was linked not to the energy issue but to developments around Iran: according to him, the decision was shaped by Middle East negotiations involving Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as the risk of a military strike on Iran and a possible closure of airspace.
The analyst stressed that any halt to strikes on energy infrastructure only makes sense as a written agreement with identical terms for both sides. In his view, the document should clearly list the protected sites: for Ukraine these would include power plants, substations, gas fields and storage facilities, while Russia’s list could also include oil refineries and terminals.
“There was no truce. There was simply a pause in the strikes,” Fesenko said, commenting on the renewed attacks on the night of February 3, when Ukraine was experiencing severe frost.
He noted that Ukraine’s energy system has already been damaged by more than half, while thermal generation has, in his words, been almost entirely knocked out. At the same time, he put the damage to Russian oil refineries at 17-18%, adding that a meaningful level of impact for Russia would be around 35%.
Fesenko believes the pause also suited the Kremlin for military reasons: large combined attacks on Kyiv do not happen every day, but roughly once a week, because Russia needs time to accumulate missiles and drones. The main lesson, he said, is that oral arrangements do not work, and that a real energy truce is only possible if it is clearly formalized in legal terms and can be extended.