Russia’s oil industry is facing pressure on two fronts: US sanctions are restricting exports, while continuing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries are limiting the country’s ability to process crude at home. According to Novaya-Europe, this is one of the deepest crises for a sector that generates roughly a quarter of federal budget revenue.
After the administration of Donald Trump added Rosneft and Lukoil to the SDN list in late October, seaborne shipments from Russian ports fell from about 3.6 million to 3 million barrels per day. The formal cutoff from dollar trade is due on November 21, but buyers have already started backing away. Citing Bloomberg, the report says five Indian refineries have paused December purchases, while Sinopec and PetroChina are cutting cargoes from the port of Kozmino.
If those pauses turn into a longer-term withdrawal, Russia’s seaborne exports could drop by 40–45%, to a little over 2 million barrels a day. Another 0.8–0.9 million barrels per day are still expected to reach China through a pipeline, which is seen as less exposed to sanctions scrutiny.
At the same time, domestic refining capacity is shrinking. If Russian refineries processed around 5.4 million barrels per day in July 2025, by late October the decline had reached about 10%, and after strikes on the Volgograd, Tuapse and Nizhny Novgorod plants, more pessimistic estimates put the drop at 15%. That would leave roughly 0.8 million barrels per day of crude without an outlet.
“If lower exports persist for 4–6 weeks and pipeline deliveries and storage capacity hit their limits, forced balancing through production cuts begins,” Tatyana Mitrova of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy told Novaya-Europe.
The strain is already showing up in state finances. According to the outlet, oil and gas budget revenues in January-October were down 21% from the same period a year earlier, with lost revenue totaling about 2 trillion rubles. Experts also warn of a wider discount on Russian crude versus Brent, possible production cuts and risks for the ruble, although the final impact will depend on global demand, OPEC producers’ actions and price trends.