Against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, EU countries are increasingly facing hybrid threats, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and airspace violations. In this context, Poland and the Baltic states are seen as Europe’s eastern defensive line, while Lithuania is debating a “Baltic defense line,” anti-drone measures, and new border fortifications.
Military expert Vaidotas Malinenis said incidents involving drones over Poland, Denmark, Norway, Germany, and Lithuania were more likely meant as a show of force and pressure on Russia’s domestic audience than preparation for an immediate attack. In his view, Europe has responded in the opposite way: by strengthening coordination, expanding defense production, and treating threats more seriously. He noted that a Rheinmetall plant producing 155 mm ammunition is expected to start operating in Lithuania soon.
Malinenis describes the Baltic defense line as a multilayered system for detection, deterrence, and destruction of targets. Some of its elements are already visible near Panemune on the border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region, where “dragon’s teeth” barriers have been installed. In his estimate, Russia will need at least 3–4 years after the end of the war in Ukraine to rebuild its resources.
Economist and Seimas member Ekaterina Royaka said Lithuania has been steadily increasing defense spending: the country began allocating 2% of GDP as early as 2019, and last year the figure reached 3.11%. The authorities now aim to raise it to 5–6% of GDP through a combination of spending shifts, tax changes, and borrowing. She said GDP growth in 2025 is expected at 2.6–2.8%, while the European Commission recently provided the country with more than 6 billion euros through the SAFE mechanism.
Belarusian volunteer Aleksandr Klochko, who fought for the Ukrainian armed forces in 2022–2023, argued that fortifications matter, but that the decisive factors are society’s readiness to resist, rapid evacuation of civilians, and the development of air defense and drone technologies.
“If artillery used to be called the queen of the battlefield, now drones are the gods of war,”he said, adding that the Baltic states still have several years to build a more reliable defense system.