Russian officials renewed discussion in October about raising social insurance payments for people who now contribute little to the country’s welfare funds or do not contribute at all. The groups under discussion include the self-employed, parts of small business, as well as unemployed people and those working in the informal economy.
The debate followed statements by officials that the medical and pension systems lack funding. Under current budget plans, the compulsory health fund and the Social Fund are due to receive 5.8 trillion rubles in 2026 and 5.6 trillion rubles in both 2027 and 2028. The outlet notes that federal priorities have shifted toward military spending, which has sharply increased since 2022.
Federation Council speaker Valentina Matviyenko called for new revenue sources and pointed to able-bodied non-working citizens as one such group. She said they could be charged about 45,000 rubles a year for the compulsory health fund. Similar arguments were voiced by Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin.
According to calculations by Novaya-Europe based on data from the Federal Tax Service, Rosstat, and the Labor Ministry, additional revenue from the self-employed, sole proprietors on the simplified tax regime, the unemployed, and shadow-sector workers could theoretically reach 1.587 trillion rubles a year. The article estimates roughly 847 billion rubles for the Social Fund from the self-employed, 94 billion from the unemployed, 296 billion from informal workers, plus another 71.6 billion and 225 billion rubles for the health fund from the last two groups.
Discussion is also continuing around the professional income tax regime for the self-employed. The Federation Council suggested winding it down from 2026, while the government said the regime would remain in place until 2028, though a new model should already be discussed. The outlet estimates that raising the tax by 1 percentage point could bring the health fund an extra 7 billion rubles per year.
“This is rather a question of social consequences and distinguishing the truly poor from those who conceal income,” a Russian tax lawyer who asked not to be named told the outlet.
The source said the broad estimates of potential collections were realistic, but warned of risks. Analysts and business representatives say a further increase in the burden could push some entrepreneurs into the shadow economy or force them to stop operating. At the same time, the lawyer argued that such a shift would not become mass, because many transactions already go through bank transfers and can technically be tracked by the state.