Parliamentary elections are being held in Moldova on September 28, in a vote the country’s authorities describe as a choice not only between foreign policy directions, but also between stability and the risk of war. Throughout the campaign, President Maia Sandu said that a victory by the opposition would endanger the republic’s sovereignty, independence, and European future.
Sandu said that in such a scenario, “Europe would stop at Moldova’s border,” European funds could be frozen, and the country could become a foothold for Russian forces to penetrate Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Transnistria would be destabilized.
Chisinau links the main threats to Moscow’s hybrid influence. On September 26, Reuters reported on the involvement of priests from the Moldovan Orthodox Church under the Moscow Patriarchate: after trips to Russia, they were allegedly given bank cards loaded with up to $1,200 in exchange for campaigning against European integration. Ziarul de Gardă and the group Promo-LEX also reported networks of fake accounts, disinformation, attempted vote-buying, and preparations for cyberattacks against the Central Election Commission’s infrastructure.
Experts have described Moldova as a “laboratory of hybrid interference.” Moscow rejects the accusations and, through Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, accuses the Moldovan authorities instead of pressuring opposition forces and the media.
One of the central figures in Moldova’s accusations remains oligarch Ilan Shor, who lives in Russia. His Victory bloc was barred from the election, and on September 26 the affiliated party Moldova Mare was also removed from the race. On the same day, the CEC also suspended the party Heart of Moldova over suspected illegal financing.
According to an iData poll conducted on September 7-19, PAS could win 34.7%, while the Patriotic Electoral Bloc of socialists, communists, and their allies could get 33.9%. Two more forces are also likely to enter parliament: Alternative with 9.8% and Renato Usatii’s Our Party with 7.4%. The survey did not include the diaspora vote, which is expected to benefit PAS: 301 polling stations will open abroad, while only two will operate in Russia.
Even if the ruling party finishes first, it is unlikely to secure an outright majority. That makes a period of unstable coalitions and slower EU-related reforms more likely. Additional concern followed more than 250 searches on September 22 in a case involving preparations for mass unrest: 74 people were detained, and investigators say they had been trained in camps in Serbia to confront police and handle weapons.