Novaya Gazeta Europe analyzed Central Election Commission data on the September elections and concluded that candidates linked to the war against Ukraine won 686 out of at least 45,250 mandates. That amounts to 1.5% of all seats. Even if one uses Ella Pamfilova’s figure of 1,035 winners out of 1,663 participants, their share would be only 2.3%, while the theoretical maximum would not exceed 3.7%.
The outlet says the official figures changed repeatedly. On different dates, the CEC cited 1,397, then 1,616, and later 1,663 such candidates. Similar discrepancies appeared in United Russia’s statements: Dmitry Medvedev spoke of 380 nominees, while Vladimir Yakushev later said there were 951. These claims are difficult to verify because parties do not publish full name lists of those they classify as “veterans” or participants in the “special military operation.”
According to the paper’s calculations, war-linked figures ran for 1,455 elective posts. This group included not only people who listed the Defense Ministry, military units, or veteran status, but also employees of military hospitals, draft-registration bodies, support funds, and organizations involved in military-patriotic education.
The analysis found that a military background affected outcomes differently depending on the level of the race. In elections to regional legislatures and the parliaments of regional capitals, United Russia candidates linked to the military sphere won more often than party colleagues without that link. At the municipal level, the pattern reversed, with civilian candidates winning more often. The authors say that for elections to regional parliaments, regional-capital councils, and urban and rural settlements, these differences for United Russia were statistically significant under Fisher’s exact test.
According to an unnamed electoral expert cited by the outlet, regional elites demonstrate military candidates’ success to Moscow primarily through legislative assembly races, where such candidates benefit from administrative and campaign resources.
The highest share of mandates won by war-linked candidates was recorded in Buryatia and Tyva, at 11% each. In absolute terms, the largest numbers of such winners were in Dagestan, Tatarstan, and Orenburg Region. The largest single group of elected war participants, according to the outlet, will sit in the Ulyanovsk city parliament, with 6 of 40 deputies.