The explosion at the Moscow Oil Refinery, which sent a tank lid flying into the air, was likely caused by an air defense missile rather than a Ukrainian drone.
This conclusion followed the appearance of a video that spread widely on the evening of June 18, first in the Chinese segment of TikTok and later through Ukrainian Telegram channels. The recording was likely made by a visitor from China, as Chinese-language comments can be heard off camera.
At the start of the footage, the person filming keeps a drone in frame. A missile is launched toward it, but, according to the video, misses and continues toward a refinery tank. An explosion follows immediately afterward.
OSINT analysts from Astra, along with two of the three experts interviewed by Agentstvo, concluded that the missile itself caused the blast. A third analyst allowed for another possibility: that a low-flying drone, not visible in the recording, struck the tank while the missile was attempting and failing to intercept it.
According to Astra, the launch was presumably made from a Pantsir system. Radio Liberty journalist Mark Krutov noted that this system had been deployed near the Moscow refinery only recently, in mid-June.
The Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow and the surrounding region on June 18 was the largest since the start of the war. In addition to the refinery, fires broke out at the Sadovod market and the Mega Belaya Dacha shopping complex. Several residential buildings in the Moscow region were damaged, and 17 people were reported injured.
On June 19, the attacks continued. Around midday, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said that 37 Ukrainian drones had been shot down within an hour and a half. No serious consequences from that raid had been reported so far.