Latvian intelligence has warned of signs that Russia may be preparing provocations against the Baltic states and Poland in an effort to increase pressure on NATO and push the alliance to scale back support for Ukraine.
In comments to Fox News published on June 22, intelligence officials said they were not talking about a conventional war but about possible hybrid attacks. Among the scenarios they mentioned were missile and drone strikes, as well as other actions meant to send allies a message: stop helping Ukraine or face consequences yourselves.
“At the moment, we do not fear a full-scale invasion. Even if the war in Ukraine ended today, Russia would need three to five years to rebuild sufficient military capacity. What concerns us now are provocations: drones, missiles, and other hybrid attacks,” the intelligence service said.
Latvia’s side says one of its main concerns is that Vladimir Putin is receiving distorted assessments from Russian agencies. In Riga’s view, this could lead to rash and dangerous decisions.
Earlier, the Constitution Protection Bureau of Latvia released a report saying Moscow plans to file a case against the Baltic states at the International Court of Justice, accusing them of discriminating against Russians and Russian speakers. Latvian intelligence believes this legal campaign could help create a narrative later used to justify Russian actions against its neighbors.
The bureau also noted that at the end of May Putin signed a law allowing the use of armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad. Russia’s Federation Council had granted the president similar authority immediately before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian authorities did not respond to Fox News’ request for comment.