Russian authorities have lowered their target benchmarks for turnout in the State Duma elections and for the expected result of United Russia. That was reported by Vedomosti, citing sources. According to the newspaper’s interlocutors, the adjustment is meant to secure “legitimate results.”
The sources said the new benchmarks will vary by region. In places where the ruling party traditionally wins more votes, the target will remain higher, while in regions with weaker support it will be lower. At the same time, two sources said the broader political objective has not changed: United Russia is still expected to retain a constitutional majority in the next State Duma, meaning more than 300 of 450 seats.
According to the report, the party is expected to win roughly 190 to 210 of the 225 single-member district seats. Its result on the party list could end up slightly below 50%. Even so, one source said regional authorities are still required to keep in mind the overall target of more than 300 seats.
One source told the newspaper that overall turnout is expected to remain around 50%, the same level recorded in the 2021 State Duma elections. He described turnout as “the most important indicator of the legitimacy of the elections.”
Vedomosti’s sources also said that this time vice-governors responsible for domestic politics are not being given a single nationwide expected result. The newspaper noted that in the past such targets were communicated to regional authorities, including at Kremlin-run seminars.
The revised benchmarks come amid declining approval ratings for the authorities. According to the state-run VTsIOM polling center, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating fell over seven weeks through the end of April from 73.3% to 65.6%. After that, the pollster began combining telephone surveys with door-to-door interviews. The rating then rose to 69.4%, but later started falling again and now stands at 67.7%. Approval of the State Duma’s performance also declined, according to VTsIOM’s latest data, from 44% in January to 42.1% now.