The number of people willing to sign military service contracts in Russia is declining, and against that backdrop officials are discussing the possibility of a new wave of mobilization after the State Duma elections. This is reported by Meduza’s sources, as well as by Important Stories and Verstka.
According to Important Stories’ calculations based on federal budget spending data, nationwide contract recruitment in the fourth quarter of 2025 fell by 1.5 times compared with the same period a year earlier. Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs estimated that in the first quarter of 2026 about 800 people a day were signing contracts, the lowest figure in three years. In the second quarter, based on regional payment data, he estimated that the number rose to roughly 1,000 a day.
Sources in several regions told reporters that the flow of volunteers keeps shrinking even though monthly recruitment targets remain in place. One source in Siberia said recruitment is now driven largely by detainees who are offered contracts in exchange for an end to prosecution. Another serviceman said some recruits are poorly suited for service, and that some later flee the front; according to him, units remain understaffed.
Sources link these problems to intensified propaganda campaigns and higher payments, as well as promises of rear-area jobs, even though the contracts signed are standard ones and can lead to deployment in any unit. According to Important Stories and Verstka, the Kremlin is also discussing tougher scenarios. One source said mobilization is being discussed at multiple levels, with October, after the State Duma elections, mentioned as a possible timeframe.
Meduza’s sources also describe indirect signs of preparation. One senior regional official said the federal government had ordered a 10–15% reduction in staff at administrations of different levels by October 1; according to him, similar cuts are expected in regional branches of federal agencies. He said there had been no direct instruction tying the layoffs to mobilization.
A less drastic option is also being discussed. One source involved in the presidential administration’s media agenda said reserve personnel now engaged in rear support could be rotated into active units, while some mobilized soldiers would be moved to the rear or demobilized. Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish analytical group Rochan Consulting, told the Financial Times that without partial mobilization, the Kremlin would likely struggle to change the situation at the front.