The Kremlin is considering a new mobilization campaign because of mounting problems with replenishing forces for the war, according to Vazhnye Istorii and Verstka, which cite eight sources connected to the presidential administration and the security bloc. There has been no official confirmation of these claims.
According to two sources, such a decision could be announced as early as October, after the State Duma elections. A source overseeing recruitment at one state corporation said preparations for what “will never be called mobilization” have already been underway for several months.
“They are constantly complaining from beyond the line about an acute shortage of people. Filling those needs will have to be rushed,” he said.
A source involved in shaping the media agenda inside the presidential administration said the Kremlin is also discussing sending reservists currently serving in rear positions to the front. According to him, they could be replaced by already mobilized citizens who would either be reassigned to rear duties or demobilized. A source close to the intelligence service of a Western country described mobilization as one of several hypothetically harsh options, while another Kremlin-linked source said such measures are indeed being discussed, though there is still a sense of political reluctance.
Similar reports have surfaced before. In early June, sources cited by The Washington Post also said the Kremlin might resort to mobilization after the September elections. Other sources interviewed by the newspaper, however, suggested the authorities would be more likely to pause the military campaign than take such a politically risky step, noting that the 2022 mobilization significantly hurt Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings.
Verstka reports that this spring the pace of new contract recruitment in Moscow fell by one-third, and by one-quarter nationwide. According to the outlet, front-line units are staffed at only 25–40%, while the number of service members absent without leave is rising. Regional authorities are increasing payments both to recruiters and to new contract soldiers, and some potential recruits are being lured with promises of being allowed to “sit it out in the rear.”
At the same time, Russia has been losing previously occupied Ukrainian territory for a second consecutive month, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Researchers said Russian forces lost 116 square kilometers in April and 281 square kilometers in May. Data from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, cited by Agentstvo, showed that from May 25 to May 31 the area under Moscow’s control shrank by another 19 square kilometers, the largest such loss since September 2023.