Vladimir Putin is receiving a distorted picture of the situation at the front and is underestimating the technological changes of recent years. This was reported by Financial Times, citing former Kremlin officials and military experts.
Two former senior Kremlin officials told the newspaper that Putin relies entirely on briefings from Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, which may be delivered several times a day. According to one source, the Russian president views victory in the war as only a matter of time, even though he understands that the military can mislead him.
A source told FT that Putin is heavily influenced by the military and, despite recognizing this, continues to trust them, which alters his perception of reality.
The newspaper says the extent of that misjudgment was visible on June 12, during a meeting with participants in the invasion of Ukraine. Military personnel asked when Russia would have an equivalent to Starlink for guiding drone strikes. Putin replied that Russia already had such a system and that it was no worse than SpaceX’s network. He was referring to the Rassvet project by Bureau 1440: 16 satellites were launched into orbit in March, while Starlink has already deployed more than 10,000.
According to FT’s sources, Russia is trailing Ukraine in the use of battlefield technology. This has become especially clear with the spread of drones: Ukraine has expanded their use, disrupting Russian supply chains and isolating forces along the front line. A source involved in unofficial talks told the paper that even the elite Russian UAV unit Rubikon has not mastered comparable capabilities.
FT notes that Moscow still relies on numerical superiority and firepower: commanders continue sending soldiers into assaults, while the Defense Ministry carries out airstrikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Emil Kastehelmi, co-founder of the Finnish monitoring group Black Bird Group, said this tactic does not provide the means for larger gains, and Russia has not yet found new methods.
A source also said that officials in Moscow understand the need to mobilize economic, human, and industrial resources, but that no final decision has yet been made. Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish analytical group Rochan Consulting, said Russia is unlikely to achieve a strategic breakthrough during its summer campaign without large-scale additional measures. In his view, only a nuclear strike or a new mobilization could bring major changes.