As the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026 draw closer, Donald Trump’s agenda is increasingly being judged through its electoral impact. This is most visible in two areas: the work of the immigration agency ICE and the state of the economy, which had been one of Trump’s main strengths in the 2024 campaign.
In fiscal year 2025, ICE’s budget rose to $28.7 billion, nearly triple the 2024 level. Its workforce increased from 10,000 to 22,000 officers. The administration had set targets of 100,000 detentions a day and 1 million deportations a year, but according to official figures, 675,000 people were removed during Trump’s first year in office. The White House, however, also highlights another figure: 2.2 million “voluntary self-deportations.”
The escalation of raids has been accompanied by scandals. On January 7 in Minneapolis, activist and poet Renee Nicole Good was shot dead, and on January 24 nurse Alex Pretti was killed. A Politico/Public First poll conducted on January 16-19 found that 49% of Americans consider the mass deportation campaign too aggressive. A YouGov poll on January 24 showed that 58% described ICE’s tactics as excessively forceful.
There is no full unity among Trump’s own voters. While MAGA supporters are more likely to back both the goals and the methods of the deportation campaign, moderate Republicans much more often support only the stated goals, not how they are being implemented. Some Republican politicians and the National Rifle Association also voiced criticism, drawing attention to the rhetoric used after Pretti’s death, even though he had been legally carrying a firearm.
For most Americans, though, the economy remains the central issue. According to The Wall Street Journal, fewer than 45% approve of Trump’s economic policy, while 54% view it negatively. About 55% of families reported serious or moderate financial hardship. Estimates by Yale Budget Lab and Harvard Business School say the administration’s tariff policy has already added 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points to inflation, while extra household costs in 2026 could reach $1,300 to $1,700.
Polling and historical trends both worsen the outlook for Republicans. Aggregator 270toWin and a model by professors Charles Tien and Michael Lewis-Beck indicate a risk that Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives, although their position in the Senate looks steadier. If those projections hold, the “trifecta” formed after the 2024 elections could end this fall.