Andrey Melnichenko, ranked eighth on the Russian Forbes list with a fortune of more than $20 billion, has published an article in the British magazine The Economist. The magazine notes that such a contribution is unusual: the businessman, who is under Western sanctions, lives mostly in Russia, does not criticize the war and, in the editors’ view, is not challenging the Russian political system but offering the authorities his own vision of change.
Melnichenko, the owner of EuroChem and SUEK, says he decided to speak out because sanctions destroyed his former way of life, which had allowed him to do business in Russia while living in the West. According to The Economist, his companies account for almost 1% of Russia’s GDP. In 2023, Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office tried to nationalize Sibeco, a company linked to him; those efforts stopped after he donated 32 billion rubles to the Sirius educational center created on Vladimir Putin’s initiative.
Four scenarios
The article is titled “Why a Fragmented Russia Is Bad for the Whole World.” Its central argument is that after the Russian-Ukrainian war ends, Russia should become part of a new security architecture. In the author’s view, the former mechanism that allowed great powers to coexist has broken down, while the need for international security is now greater than ever.
Melnichenko argues that the West seeks to destroy or sharply restrict Russia’s sovereignty and calls that a mistake. He lists four possible scenarios for postwar Russia: a humiliated country on the West’s periphery, deeper placement in China’s orbit, fragmentation and loss of governability, or transformation into a besieged fortress where technological and social development is stifled by a permanent state of emergency.
In Melnichenko’s view, the choice for outside actors is not between a friendly Russia and a hostile one, but between a predictable Russia and one whose trajectory is unknown.
The businessman also writes that sanctions have already disillusioned Russian business and the creative class with the previous world order. As an alternative to these negative scenarios, he proposes support for Russia’s transformation into a sovereign state focused on the well-being of its citizens while remaining understandable to the outside world. In his interpretation, sovereignty should apply not only to the state but also to big business, citizens and public institutions. In an editorial note, The Economist says that although Melnichenko does not call for Vladimir Putin’s removal, the changes he describes would ultimately mean the end of the Russian president’s one-man rule.