European politicians are increasingly linking the nuclear issue to the Russian threat and doubts about the reliability of the United States under Donald Trump. In Poland, officials are calling for greater autonomy in nuclear deterrence, Finland is discussing a possible end to its ban on hosting such weapons, and French President Emmanuel Macron has said France will expand its capabilities and could allow nuclear-armed aircraft to be stationed with allies.
In an interview with Novaya Gazeta. Baltia, UN Institute for Disarmament Research senior researcher Andrey Baklitskiy said statements by Polish President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk remain vague. In his view, building a national bomb would be an extraordinarily major political decision for Warsaw.
He noted that Poland is a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. A state can formally withdraw by notifying other members and the UN Security Council three months in advance, but such a move could trigger sanctions, political isolation and difficulties in civilian nuclear cooperation. Baklitskiy stressed that since 1968 there has been an international consensus that the number of nuclear states should be kept as low as possible.
Technically, he said, Poland is a poor candidate. The country has no domestic uranium or plutonium, no operating civilian nuclear sector, and its planned plant with Westinghouse has not yet begun construction and is only due for completion in 2038. Beyond fissile material, it would also need advanced chemical, metallurgical and military industries, as well as delivery systems.
“Nuclear weapons do not give you an advantage,” Baklitskiy said, arguing that they do not guarantee protection from attacks and do not make nuclear powers more successful in territorial wars.
According to him, the main effect of such weapons is deterring a direct large-scale war between major powers. At the same time, the reliability of any “nuclear umbrella,” including NATO mechanisms, can never be an absolute guarantee. Among the countries that could theoretically move closer to acquiring a bomb, he named Iran, Japan and South Korea.
On the risk of a new arms race, Baklitskiy pointed to debate in the United States over expanding its arsenal, statements from France, and the expiry in February of New START, which had limited Russia and the US. In his view, if states stop treating non-proliferation as a shared norm, the world will become markedly more dangerous.