Russia has increased pressure on Belarus in 2026 in an effort to draw the country deeper into the war against Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing current and former European and Russian officials. According to the newspaper’s sources, Moscow wants to use Belarusian territory to expand drone strikes on Ukraine, pull some Ukrainian forces away from Donbas, and conduct operations against neighboring NATO states.
A former Russian intelligence officer told the WSJ that Moscow has mainly been negotiating with Alexander Lukashenko through Russia’s ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov. Sources said one of the main levers of pressure is financial support on which the Belarusian leadership depends. At the same time, the officials interviewed by the WSJ said there are no immediate signs of a new move to involve Belarus more directly in the war, though that possibility remains.
Belarusian territory and infrastructure have been used by Russia to attack Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion. Lukashenko himself said in 2023 that he was ready to enter the war fully if Ukraine attacked Belarus. In recent weeks, however, he has twice said he would not allow the country to be drawn further into the conflict.
“Belarus is fully visible to the Ukrainian military. We clearly understand that our main life-support, industrial, and logistics facilities would come under attack,” Lukashenko said in an interview with Al Arabiya recorded on June 12.
On June 17, a drone struck a bus carrying Belarusian children in a Russian border region. A woman accompanying the children was killed, and six other people, including four children, were injured. Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other. Lukashenko said the drone was Ukrainian, but his overall reaction was restrained.
On June 19, Volodymyr Zelensky increased pressure on Minsk. The Ukrainian president said that relay devices and other equipment located on Belarusian territory along the border help guide fire at Ukrainian targets, and he demanded that they be removed within a week. Ukrainian officials later said this did not necessarily mean physical destruction: according to diplomat Yaroslav Chornohor, similar relay devices had already been remotely suppressed in February. Analysts differ on how seriously to take Zelensky’s ultimatum, but they agree that any strike on objects in Belarus would sharply raise the risk of a direct conflict between Minsk and Kyiv, which would benefit Russia.
Lukashenko has not publicly responded to Zelensky’s remarks, although nearly a week has passed. Instead, he announced a meeting with Vladimir Putin, where the Kremlin said the Ukrainian ultimatum would also be discussed, and spoke of a forthcoming long trip abroad.