Military experts interviewed by Novaya Gazeta Europe say that in 2025 neither side in the war in Ukraine achieved a strategic breakthrough. Comparing the front line at the start and end of the year, they say the line of contact changed only limitedly: Russian forces advanced in several sectors, but mostly by dozens of kilometers or less.
By mid-March, the article says, Russian forces had almost completely pushed Ukrainian troops out of their bridgehead in the Kursk region, after which fighting shifted into the Sumy region. By the end of the year, Moscow repeatedly claimed the capture of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kupiansk, and Vovchansk, but the Ukrainian command said control over those cities had not been fully lost. At the same time, combat intensified in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian troops are assaulting Huliaipole.
Military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko told the outlet that Ukraine mostly remained on the defensive, slowing the enemy and preventing it from seizing large areas. In his view, even with the Russian force in Ukraine growing to 710,000 troops, Moscow failed to accomplish the goals of its summer offensive. Military observer David Sharp, for his part, said Russia retained the initiative throughout the year, but its advance came at heavy cost and moved very slowly.
An anonymous analyst from the Conflict Intelligence Team said Ukrainian defenses in 2025 avoided an operational-strategic collapse, though several tactical crises did occur. In his words, the loss of the Kursk bridgehead seriously weakened Ukraine’s defensive potential: some of its best-prepared brigades lost combat effectiveness for a long period, and large amounts of equipment were also lost.
Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of military programs at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, linked the war’s prolonged nature to the imbalance in the sides’ long-range strike capabilities. He recalled that Ukrainian generals Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Mykhailo Zabrodskyi identified this as a key factor back in 2022. According to Lakiychuk, only in 2025 did Ukraine independently develop the capacity to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, while drone strikes and special-service operations changed perceptions of the conflict.
As for what comes next, experts suggest that after a possible capture of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, Russian forces could continue pressing toward Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Dobropillia, and other sectors. At the same time, the outlet’s sources say a fast deep breakthrough is unlikely: Russia lacks sufficient reserves to exploit even a local rupture of the front on a large scale.
The experts also assessed the negotiations that have continued through most of Donald Trump’s second term. They named Moscow’s demand for the transfer of all of Donbas, including areas it has not occupied, as one of the main obstacles. Ivan Stupak said the key question in any deal is how compliance would be monitored, and that a reliable peace would be unlikely without foreign peacekeeping forces. Kovalenko added that as of December 25, 2025, reaching practical agreements was impossible, while fighting in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions was continuing.