Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Ukraine was allegedly preparing a series of strikes on Russian territory using Latvia, and warned the Baltic state of “just retribution.”
According to the SVR statement, Kyiv, in the agency’s account, does not intend to limit itself to air corridors that the Russian side says the Baltic states had previously provided to the Ukrainian armed forces. The service claims that drones are also to be launched directly from those countries’ territory because this would shorten flight time to targets and increase the effectiveness of the attacks.
The SVR also alleges that Ukraine convinced Latvia it would be impossible to determine the exact launch point of the drones, after which Latvian authorities supposedly approved the operation. The Russian service further said that personnel from Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces were already stationed at Latvian military bases.
“One can only sympathize with the naivety of Latvia’s leaders. Modern intelligence capabilities make it possible to reliably establish the coordinates of a UAV launch point. <…> It is worth recalling that the coordinates of decision-making centers on Latvian territory are well known, and the country’s NATO membership will not protect accomplices of terrorists from just retribution,” the SVR said.
Reaction from Latvia and Ukraine
Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze called the claims false in a post on X.
“Fact: Latvia does NOT provide airspace for attacks on Russia. This has already been explained to Russian representatives several times,” Braze wrote.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics also said Russia’s claims were false that the country allows Ukraine to use its airspace and territory for strikes on Russia or any other state.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi also issued a denial. He said the reports about preparations for attacks from Latvian territory were untrue.
“Ukraine does not use Latvia’s territory or airspace in its operations against Russia and does not intend to do so,” Tykhyi said.
Expert assessment
In comments to Novaya-Europe, defense policy expert Daniels Kaulins of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga said the Baltic states support Ukraine’s right to strike Russian military targets, but do not provide their territory as a staging ground for such attacks.
He added that the Baltic countries are also adopting the Ukrainian armed forces’ drone warfare experience to adapt their own defenses. As an example, Kaulins cited the participation of Ukrainian drone specialists in the NATO exercise “Aurora-26” on the island of Gotland in April. He also noted that in 2024 Latvia launched the “drone coalition”, which now includes 20 countries, among them the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Turkey. According to the expert, the group has delivered or is preparing to transfer about 100,000 drones.
“This SVR statement has two goals: to influence the domestic audience and foreign actors. The Kremlin needs to explain why Ukraine is suddenly capable of disrupting the May 9 parade and inflicting serious damage on its infrastructure. At the same time, Moscow is threatening Ukraine’s biggest supporters,” Kaulins said.
In his view, Moscow may continue or intensify provocations in the information sphere and beyond. Kaulins said Russia has a broad range of tools for escalation in Europe, but that the Kremlin will likely begin with actions it can deny.
Context
In April, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Moscow had warned the Baltic states. She claimed that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia were providing airspace for Ukrainian drones attacking targets inside Russia.
In response, the Baltic states said they had not allowed Ukrainian drones to pass through their territory for attacks on Russia. They acknowledged that Ukrainian drones do at times enter the airspace of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, but said this happens because the UAVs lose their bearings due to Russian electronic warfare systems.
After several Ukrainian drones entered Latvian territory in early May, first Defense Minister Andris Spruds resigned, followed by the government. Updated at 17:30 Moscow time: an expert comment was added to the article.