The Russian government responded to a question from Vladimir Putin about why macroeconomic indicators were tracking below the forecasts of the cabinet itself. In response, ministries revised their official estimates downward, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.
According to the updated forecast from the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP growth in 2026 is now expected at just 0.4%. Earlier, growth of 2.4% had been projected, and that figure was later revised to 1.3%. Growth in real household incomes is also expected to nearly stall at 1.6% after 4.4% in 2025.
In addition, investment is projected to decline this year by 3.5% under the conservative scenario or by 1.5% under the baseline scenario. Experts cited by the newspaper say higher taxes led to lower collections: total tax revenues in the consolidated budget fell by 8.2%.
In mid-April 2026, Putin attributed the drop in GDP in the first months of the year to long holidays and “seasonal factors.” At that time, he also demanded from the government
detailed reports on the state of the economy and on why the trajectory of macro indicators is below expectations
Later, the Ministry of Economic Development said that in the first quarter of 2026, Russia’s GDP declined by 0.3% compared with the same period a year earlier. It was the first quarterly contraction since the beginning of 2023.