Staff in the Russian presidential administration began working as early as late winter 2025 on an “image of victory” — a set of propaganda messages meant to explain a possible peace agreement with Ukraine to Russians. This is stated in an investigation by the Dossier Center.
Risks of continuing the war
A presentation prepared for people close to Sergei Kiriyenko says that continuing the war could require general mobilization and a full conversion of the economy onto a war footing. The risks listed also include resource depletion, higher taxes, business cutbacks, drone attacks, a demographic crisis, and other consequences.
How the Kremlin sees a possible peace
The most likely peace scenario, as described from the Kremlin’s point of view, предполагает agreements between the United States and Russia, as well as between the United States and Ukraine. Under this version, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions would pass to Russia, the division of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be fixed along the front line, Russian troops would withdraw from the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, European sanctions would remain in place, and U.S. sanctions would be lifted. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would remain in power in Ukraine.
The presentation is said not to be connected to the actual course of negotiations and instead to reflect the expectations of the political bloc within the presidential administration. The document says nothing about when peace might be concluded.
Which “victory” arguments are proposed
According to the materials, the “special military operation” supposedly allowed Russia to “prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Donbas,” while its army became “the most combat-capable in the entire world” and withstood a global confrontation against 50 countries. The presidential administration reportedly sees the main achievements as territorial gains, a land route to Crimea, and the acquisition of millions of new Russian-speaking citizens. It is also singled out that Russia supposedly “cleansed itself” of “elites who betrayed it.”
After the war, Russians are to be offered what the presentation calls “good news”: talk of normalization, social projects, business success stories, a “controlled thaw” in cinema and literature, the return of political humor, the rehabilitation of the word “peace,” and a limited amnesty. At the same time, the document says nothing about lifting internet blocks.
How Z-bloggers would be handled
As Dossier writes, the presidential administration considers this group one of the problematic audiences: if the war ends, some “ultra-patriots” may see it as a defeat. To address that, the proposal calls for an “emotional change of shoes” by loyal bloggers, reducing the presence of radical voices in the media space, and marginalizing those who would “devalue the victory.” Those who continue to express outrage would be threatened with criminal cases.
Whether Vladimir Putin would approve such a plan is unknown. At least publicly, he has given no indication that the conflict will end soon.