After an operational pause of more than a month, Russian forces have stepped up attacks along the front. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed the capture of the village of Potapovka in Sumy region, while the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War says Moscow has effectively launched its spring-summer 2026 campaign against Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donetsk region.
ISW says units of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army carried out a battalion-scale assault near Lyman on March 19. More than 500 troops, dozens of armored vehicles, and over 100 motorcycles, buggies, and all-terrain vehicles were involved. Analysts also note that Russian tactics are changing: armor and infantry are being dispersed across several axes, while FAB-3000 glide bombs, Lancet loitering munitions, and Molniya drones are being used to weaken Ukrainian logistics before ground assaults.
ISW considers it unlikely that Russian forces will capture the entire “fortress belt” in 2026, although some tactical gains remain possible at the cost of major losses.
Citing Ukrainian military reports, ISW says Russia lost 405 troops out of more than 500 involved in the March 19 assault. Military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko said the first phase of the offensive began on March 17 and was one of Russia’s least successful operations, with losses exceeding 4,800 over 72 hours.
Researcher Kyrylo Mykhailov described the Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka agglomeration as one of the most dangerous sectors. Roman Svitan believes a full-scale offensive could unfold in early April, while the current stage consists of shaping operations and combat reconnaissance. Ivan Stupak estimates the Russian grouping in Ukraine at 719,000 troops and says another 58,000 are in reserve for the new campaign.
The experts also point to localized Ukrainian counteractions. According to them, Ukrainian forces regained control of more than 400-440 square kilometers in the gray zone between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, and on March 20 a Russian Ka-52 helicopter was downed by a drone near Pokrovsk. At the same time, the approaches to Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, and Dobropillia are described as the most alarming area for Ukraine.