India, which became one of the main buyers of Russian oil after the start of the war and a hub for re-exporting fuel to Europe, has begun rapidly reducing imports of Russian crude. While Indian refineries accounted for nearly half of Russia’s seaborne oil exports in 2025, purchases fell to 1.4 million barrels per day in December and to 1.2 million in January.
According to the publication, the decline is taking place amid pressure from the administration of Donald Trump. The United States has steadily expanded sanctions against Russian oil companies, and after trade arrangements with New Delhi, Trump threatened higher tariffs if Indian refiners returned to previous purchase volumes, including through third countries.
Sources in oil trading cited by Reuters said the largest Indian refineries have already refused to accept Russian tankers in March and April. As a result, exports to India may drop to 0.5–0.6 million barrels per day. A milder forecast from J.P. Morgan suggests supplies could remain at 0.8–1 million barrels per day.
“This is not a local shock but a structural stress test for the entire model of Russian oil exports to Asia,” Tatiana Mitrova of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy told the outlet.
Some volumes, market sources say, may be rerouted through Malaysia, Singapore and other Asian hubs or redirected to China, Indonesia and Syria. However, Mitrova stressed that China is only a buffer, not a bottomless market.
The main risk for Russia’s budget is tied not only to a possible decline in production, but also to cheaper oil. In December and January, Urals at loading ports sold for $35–40 per barrel; by February it was about $45. In January 2026, Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues fell by half year-on-year to 393 billion rubles. If the discounts persist, the budget may lose a significant share of the planned 8.9 trillion rubles in commodity revenue.