Russian forces are continuing to step up operations on the Zaporizhzhia front, moving additional units there, including airborne troops. According to Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, units of the 299th and 219th airborne regiments arrived in the Orikhiv sector on January 23, 2026, having been redeployed from other areas to sustain the pace of assault operations.
On January 30, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have captured the village of Ternuvate, but Kyiv denied that statement. Voloshyn said a Russian sabotage group had infiltrated the settlement, taking advantage of bad weather and what he described as an infiltration tactic. According to him, part of the group was destroyed and the rest were taken prisoner. On February 8, Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, published a video showing Ukrainian soldiers at the Ternuvate village sign holding a Ukrainian flag.
“Claims of Russian control over Ternuvate are at the very least greatly exaggerated,” military researcher Kirill Mikhaylov said, while noting that Russian fighters continue to enter the village and try to entrench themselves there.
Military and political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko says the Ukrainian side is building defensive lines and counterattacking where possible. In his view, Russian forces in 2026 are primarily trying to create a bridgehead for an offensive on Zaporizhzhia. At the same time, he argues that Russia does not yet have sufficient reserves to storm such a large city, although it may soon gain the ability to strike it with artillery and drones.
Former SBU officer Ivan Stupak offers a similar assessment. He says Russian troops have nearly taken the Stepnohirsk area and, if they secure the heights there, will be able to shell the regional center. In Stupak’s view, a rapid seizure of the city is not currently on the table, but the risk of sustained attacks on Zaporizhzhia is increasing. Before February 2022, the city had more than 700,000 residents.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says the Russian command may use limited strategic reserves for a summer 2026 offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine; according to the institute, preparations are already underway and the operation could begin in late April. The likely axes include the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area and the Orikhiv sector. Experts say the situation on the Zaporizhzhia front remains threatening, but they do not expect a decisive Russian breakthrough in the immediate future.