Amid discussion of a possible US strike on Iran, members of the Iranian diaspora described the price that protesters have already paid. After Donald Trump’s promises to support demonstrators, no concrete action followed, while the unrest, according to sources and rights advocates cited in the article, was crushed with heavy loss of life, mass arrests, and an almost complete internet shutdown.
An engineer from Tehran, Bahram, who recently moved to Germany, links the anger not only to political repression but also to deep economic hardship. He says the collapse of the national currency, rising prices, and sanctions have made daily life extremely difficult, while the authorities treat any public protest as a security threat. He recalled earlier waves of unrest in 1999 and 2009, which likewise ended in crackdowns and arrests.
A new wave began on December 28 after mounting social pressure and quickly moved beyond economic demands. Slogans against higher fuel prices and currency devaluation turned into political chants, including calls against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to the interviewees, Tehran and other cities already showed a heavy security presence and rising tension before the protests reached their peak.
The sources also point to the protests of September 2022, which began after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, detained by the morality police in Tehran over her “improper” hijab. Demonstrators then demanded an end to compulsory hijab rules, punishment for those responsible, and democratic change. According to figures cited in the article, that crackdown left at least 522 people dead, including 70 minors and 68 security personnel.
“The government tolerates no form of protest, whether from journalists and writers, professional groups, or civil society as a whole,” Bahram says.
The interviewees place primary responsibility for the violence on the security apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia. Rights advocates cited in the piece estimated that by late January at least 4,000 people had been killed in the current protests; HRANA was reviewing reports on another 9,049 possible deaths, while Iran International reported 12,000 killed. Some estimates mentioned in the article suggest the real toll may have reached 30,000.
The sources differ in their view of Reza Pahlavi. Some see him as a possible unifying figure for a transition period, while others argue that change must come from society itself rather than from a single opposition leader. All three, however, agree on one point: without real outside backing, they believe the regime cannot be defeated. They describe deep disappointment with the passivity of the United States and Europe and fear that even any future intervention by Washington would not be driven by the interests of ordinary Iranians.