On January 3, 2026, the rule of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ended after a US operation to capture him. Yet the crisis of the regime created by the chavistas after Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999 had been building for years.
After Chavez died in March 2013, Vice President Maduro became his successor. His victory over Henrique Capriles was officially just 1.49%, and the opposition was already alleging possible fraud. The split between supporters of chavismo and its opponents was becoming increasingly visible across the country.
The collapse in oil prices in 2014 made matters worse. Oil provided 95% of Venezuela’s export revenue, and the fall in income struck at the social model that underpinned the government’s popularity. According to the IMF, after GDP grew by 1.3% in 2013, the economy shrank by 3.9% in 2014, while the decline reached 12% in 2017. Poverty rose from 48.4% to 82% between 2014 and 2016, and the country was hit by shortages and hyperinflation.
In response, Maduro tightened state control: he secured extraordinary powers, imposed strict price regulation, and expanded the military’s role in the economy and public administration. After the 2015 parliamentary elections, in which the opposition won a majority in the National Assembly, the executive branch used the Supreme Court to strip parliament of real influence and then transferred its functions to a loyal Constituent Assembly.
At the same time, social policy increasingly became a tool of political control, while space for independent media and civil society narrowed. One of the main consequences was mass emigration: by the end of 2025, 6.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants were in Latin America and the Caribbean, while the worldwide total was estimated at no fewer than 7.9 million.
After Maduro’s detention, he was flown to New York together with his wife, Cilia Flores. In the United States he faces charges including conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and possession of weapons and explosive devices. Regional experts say Venezuela’s next stage will depend on how far Washington is prepared to go in reshaping power after the fall of Maduro’s personalist system.