Sociologist and PS Lab researcher Oleg Zhuravlev told Novaya Gazeta Europe that, in his view, Russians’ attitudes toward the war have been shifting by the end of its fourth year. He said only two relatively small groups remain stable: about 10–15% are convinced supporters of the war and another 10–15% are convinced opponents, while most people stay somewhere in between and do not hold a coherent position.
Zhuravlev referred to figures from the Khroniki project showing that the share of people who want peace has increased, while support for continuing the war has fallen. At the same time, declared willingness to take part in the “special military operation” is also dropping: 57% gave that answer in 2023, 47% in 2024, and 37% now. He stressed that these numbers should not be read as literal readiness to go to the front; rather, they show that performative loyalty is no longer seen as a social norm.
He linked this trend not only to fatigue with propaganda, but also to personal experience: information from acquaintances who have served or died in the war, inflation, and fear that fighting could spread onto Russian territory. After events in the Kursk region, Zhuravlev said PS Lab researchers did not observe a patriotic surge there. Instead, people who lost their homes tended to unite along neighborhood and local lines, mourning the places they had lost, while placing responsibility primarily on local authorities, whom they blame for failures in fortifications and assistance.
“Non-participation in the war and distance from involvement in it are becoming the social norm,” Zhuravlev said.
In his account, many border-region residents have not come to see Ukrainians as a hostile nation: prewar memories of proximity and personal ties remain stronger. At the same time, according to Khroniki, nearly 60% of respondents would like relations with Western countries restored, though only about 30% believe that will actually happen. The issue of peace, the sociologist said, is becoming increasingly tangible for society, and some Russians tie hopes for ending the war specifically to Vladimir Putin, believing that only a strong leader can bring it to a close.