Russian forces have intensified pressure across several frontline sectors, but experts and Ukrainian servicemen interviewed by Novaya Gazeta Europe say there are no grounds to speak of capitulation or the surrender of cities without a fight. The most strained situation is around Kupiansk, Vovchansk, Kostiantynivka, the Pokrovsk agglomeration, and the Zaporizhzhia direction.
An anonymous analyst from Conflict Intelligence Team said that Kupiansk is still far from being fully captured: Russian troops are appearing only sporadically in the eastern part of the city, and without control over that area, claims of full control are premature. Military-political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko added that the Ukrainian army has managed to stabilize the situation, although Russian units continue to gather near several urban sites and are trying to place the left bank of the Oskil River under FPV drone fire control.
In Vovchansk, according to Kovalenko and CIT, street fighting has resumed after a long lull. Russian troops have crossed the Vovcha River, established a bridgehead west of the city, and may complicate supplies to the Ukrainian garrison, though the pace of their advance is still insufficient for a complete takeover. Retired Ukrainian colonel Roman Svitan said neither side currently has the resources to quickly change the overall balance there.
Heavy fighting is also underway near Kostiantynivka. Kovalenko says Russian forces are moving toward the southern outskirts and trying to secure Road 519 leading into the city. Svitan describes Kostiantynivka as a key defensive lock for Donetsk region: if it falls, Russian troops could push onward toward Druzhkivka. Pressure is also mounting, he says, on Siversk and Lyman, where sabotage and reconnaissance groups are increasingly trying to penetrate urban areas.
The publication’s sources describe Pokrovsk as the hottest point in Donbas. Kovalenko says the situation is extremely difficult but still partly controlled by Ukraine: the southern districts are under stable Russian control, while the center remains a contested zone. He says up to 170,000 Russian troops have been deployed on this axis, and up to one Russian battalion may already be inside the city. The CIT analyst, however, argues that Ukraine has virtually no chance of retaking Pokrovsk, while Myrnohrad is already partially blocked, though withdrawal from it is still possible through combat.
Zaporizhzhia region is another major concern. Ivan Stupak called the area near Huliaipole the most dangerous sector after one territorial defense unit reportedly abandoned its positions, allowing Russian troops to advance ahead of schedule. According to CIT and Kovalenko, fighting for the city could begin within hours, and its capture would give Russian forces a bridgehead for further offensive action. Kovalenko says about 100,000 Russian soldiers have been concentrated in the broader sector.
“Although the Russians are pressing on almost every axis, there is no talk of capitulation. As long as there are weapons, we will fight,” is how the outlet’s sources describe the mood among Ukrainian soldiers.
Experts also point to exhaustion within the Ukrainian armed forces, more cases of unauthorized absence, and the need for a more flexible system of rest and rehabilitation. At the same time, the interviewed soldiers and analysts say the will to resist remains intact, and that reinforcing the army from internal reserves and expanding drone warfare could allow Ukraine to keep defending itself for a long time.