Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov proposed that Vladimir Putin immediately begin preparations for a full-scale nuclear weapons test at the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. Putin responded by ordering officials to examine whether such preparations are advisable.
Experts interviewed by Novaya-Europe differ in their assessment of whether actual testing will resume. Journalist Farida Rustamova believes the Kremlin is not yet ready to take that step. In her view, Putin’s remarks amount to a political signal to Donald Trump rather than a decision to carry out a test now.
Queen’s University researcher Maksim Starchak notes that as far back as 2023, Putin instructed the Defense Ministry and Rosatom to remain ready for nuclear testing. According to him, Belousov’s statement confirms that line is still in place and appears to be a political gesture in case the United States returns to conducting nuclear explosions of its own.
“The issue of nuclear testing falls under Rosatom’s authority. Belousov wants to show that he supports a rapid response to the United States if it does go ahead with its own explosions,” Starchak said.
Foreign and defense policy expert Pavel Luzin says he would not be surprised if testing is eventually resumed. He links the possibility to Russia’s concept of “escalation for de-escalation,” under which Moscow seeks to demonstrate readiness to use nuclear weapons. At the same time, he stresses that only preparatory steps have been announced so far, not an actual detonation, and that the main purpose is psychological pressure on Western countries.
As Luzin notes, Russia has only one active nuclear test site, at Novaya Zemlya, and since 1990, when the last test took place, it has been kept in a state of readiness. Starchak adds that Russia has nearly completed the modernization of its nuclear forces, while the United States has only recently begun a similar process. In his view, testing could be used either to check existing warheads or to develop new ones, but that would mean additional costs and likely expansion beyond the current level covered by New START.
Starchak argues that if a new strategic competition with the United States takes shape, Russia could be drawn into an expensive arms race, potentially forcing it to scale back some costly missile programs. He also says that if testing resumes, it would most likely take the form of underground explosions in both countries, without the involvement of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Luzin separately emphasizes that the United States has not carried out nuclear tests for more than thirty years, so the Russian statements are not a response to actual U.S. explosions. At the same time, on November 5, the United States conducted a test launch of a Minuteman III missile: the unarmed missile flew about 6,700 kilometers from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California to a test range in the Marshall Islands. Earlier, on October 30, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had ordered the Pentagon to begin nuclear testing “immediately,” and on October 29, Putin announced a test of the nuclear-powered underwater vehicle Poseidon. Experts cited by the outlet said neither Poseidon nor the Burevestnik missile changes the balance of power and instead revives older Soviet superweapon concepts.