Middle East expert and former Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova told Novaya-Europe that the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip became possible primarily because of pressure from US President Donald Trump on both sides of the conflict. In her view, military force alone was not enough to end the war: Israel could have kept fighting, while Hamas, as a terrorist organization, had no incentive to surrender.
Svetlova argued that earlier negotiation initiatives promoted by Joe Biden and Arab states were derailed in part by the position of the Israeli government. According to her, Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet long refused to discuss ending the war and insisted on an effectively unattainable condition: Hamas had to be fully disarmed before any ceasefire. In the end, Israel accepted a deal without that demand being fulfilled.
She described this approach as deliberate policy, driven both by pressure from ultraright coalition partners and by expectations surrounding Trump’s return to the White House. She said the rhetoric of “absolute victory” never acquired a clear military meaning, while Hamas, despite severe losses, remained a significant force and, in her account, was already carrying out reprisals against opponents inside Gaza.
“At first the measures were harsh but seen as unavoidable. Later it became clear that the military goals had largely been achieved and the war was going in circles,” Svetlova said, describing the shift in attitudes toward the campaign.
In her opinion, the war’s prolonged nature sharply changed the international reaction. In the first months after October 7, 2023, Israel faced almost no criticism, but by September 2024, she said, allies increasingly felt that the main military objectives had already been met. Continued fighting, repeated operations in the same areas, and statements by ultraright ministers weakened Israel’s external support and fueled protests in Europe and elsewhere.
Svetlova also stressed that the return of hostages did not solve the central political question of who will govern Gaza. She said that unless a new authority emerges that can control the territory, rebuild daily life, and push Hamas aside, the movement may eventually recover. In her view, it is too early to speak of a full settlement, let alone a “new Middle East.”