Russia’s fuel market is facing its longest gasoline and diesel shortage of the war years. According to Novaya-Europe, one of the main causes is Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries amid seasonal demand and an unusually heavy schedule of planned maintenance.
On the night of September 5, the Ryazan refinery owned by Rosneft was attacked. It was the fifth strike on the site since the start of the year. The plant processed more than 13 million tons of oil in 2024, but after attacks in August two units remain offline, cutting fuel output in Ryazan by about half.
By the outlet’s count, in 2025 drones struck Russian refineries 38 times, and 24 attacks caused units to halt or fuel production to stop entirely. Five plants are now fully shut: Kuibyshev, Novokuibyshev, Syzran, Volgograd, and Afipsky. Including the Ryazan refinery operating at partial capacity, about 17% of oil refining capacity has been knocked out since early August.
That means roughly 17,700 tons of gasoline and 35,100 tons of diesel fuel are missing from the market each day. The Afipsky plant is excluded from domestic market calculations because it operates for export.
Traders interviewed by Novaya-Europe say the crisis began in July and may last until winter or longer. They describe the shortage of AI-92 gasoline as especially severe. One source said demand would remain elevated for five months from late August. Sources also warned of possible shortages of winter diesel once cold weather begins.
The outlet says the market is under added pressure from the high central bank rate, which prevented independent filling stations from building reserves, and from the current pricing model. Sources consider the gasoline export ban through late October ineffective. As temporary relief, they point to larger gasoline flows from Belarus; as structural measures, they cite higher mandatory exchange sales of fuel and a review of the damper subsidy mechanism.