A conflict has emerged within Russia’s political elites that a source in the Russian government, speaking to The Washington Post, compared to the confrontation around President Boris Yeltsin before his re-election in 1996.
According to the newspaper’s source, the current dispute centers on first deputy head of the presidential administration Sergei Kiriyenko and the FSB. The source said Kiriyenko and his team are trying to persuade Vladimir Putin that the situation in the country can be kept under control through political technology.
The security service, for its part, is said to insist on tougher measures, including internet shutdowns, which the FSB sees as a possible tool for opposition coordination.
WP’s sources say the situation resembles events in the Kremlin before the 1996 election, when hardline supporters wanted to preserve Yeltsin’s power by imposing martial law and canceling or postponing the presidential vote, while oligarchs were prepared to finance his campaign.
Former Yukos head and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky agreed with that interpretation. Speaking to WP, he said that in his view the conflict between the presidential administration and the FSB’s second directorate is obvious.
“These guys [the FSB] received a lot of authority and started tightening the screws very hard. The presidential administration is trying in some way to make Putin understand that the situation could get out of control,” Khodorkovsky said.
Signs of an elite split
Journalists and their sources point to the actions of pro-Kremlin lawyer and informer Ilya Remeslo as one sign of the confrontation. He publicly spoke out against Putin, was forcibly placed in a psychiatric hospital, and was released after 30 days.
“Remeslo’s turn and his continuing open defiance point to a broader split in the upper ranks of Kremlin power,” WP said, citing an official, an opposition representative, and analysts.
The newspaper also cites remarks by one of Kiriyenko’s closest allies, Sergei Novikov, head of the Kremlin department for public projects. At a conference on demography, he said that in Russia it is “already impossible to ban anything.”
“Everywhere we see chaos in management processes. Attitudes toward Putin are changing. Economic optimism and the everyday patriotism connected with it are disappearing. It is as if the composition of the air in Russia has changed,” political analyst Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a report on the growing split within Russia’s elite.
European intelligence report and broader context
A report by the intelligence service of an unnamed European country also refers to conflict within Russia’s political elites. It was said to have been obtained by Important Stories, CNN, and the Financial Times.
According to that document, concern increased in the Kremlin in March over leaks of sensitive information, as well as the risk of a plot or coup attempt against Vladimir Putin. Because of this, the FSO strengthened security measures around him.
WP notes that this conflict is unfolding against a backdrop of worsening economic conditions, intensifying repression, and internet blocking. In addition, the state-run VTsIOM has recorded declining support figures for Putin for seven consecutive weeks. According to the latest data, 24.1% of respondents said they distrusted him, while another 23.3% disapproved of his work. Other polling and analytical centers, including the Public Opinion Foundation and the Levada Center, have also recorded a decline in Putin’s ratings, the article says.